A RiDirkulous Summer

A reputation - good or bad - is a hard thing to gain, and an even harder thing to lose. Rightly or wrongly, there are certain reputations that NBA fans attach to certain players and teams, and these reps end up sticking to the players (for better or worse) for the majority of their careers.

Kobe is clutch, Kobe is selfish. LeBron is a choker. Durant is a nice guy. The Spurs are boring. Gasol is soft. The Lakers are flashy.

But reputations, at best, are simply a lazy man's description of things that he may not have the time or the motivation to delve further into. It's easier to describe someone in one word than worry about all the details, even if, from a different angle, those details prove the reputation wrong.

For the better part of the past decade, I've been guilty of this several times with Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks, all up till the NBA Finals concluded this June. And this despite the fact that the Mavs have had their shares of success in this period: In 2011, the Mavs completed their 11th consecutive 50 win season. The only team to have had as much regular season success as them in this period have been the Spurs. But the difference between the Spurs and the Mavs was that, in the last 12 seasons, the Spurs had won four NBA Championships. The Mavs had finished with the NBA's best record, even entered the Finals, but never won a ring to show for it.

During this period, they had some great highs, but what was worse was the spectacular falls. These included losing the NBA Finals to Miami in 2006 after being up 2-0, losing in the first round to the bottom-seeded Warriors after finishing with the best record in the league in 2007, and in 2010, despite being the number two seed, they lost in the first round to the seventh-seeded Spurs.

The reputation so far: The Mavericks are a great regular season team, and will be trouble for anyone facing them in the playoffs, but don't place your championship bets on them anytime soon.

And then there was their leader, Dirk Nowitzki. One of the best scorers that the NBA has ever seen, Dirk's rise and fall matched that of his squad. He got the credit for their regular season successes and their few long playoff runs, but he also got the blame for their lack in mental strength, their shattering playoff defeats and upsets. Before the 2010-11 season, Nowitzki had an All Star nine times, named to the All NBA first team four times, in the second team five times, and won the regular season MVP in 2007. Meanwhile, he became the franchise's greatest ever scorer, and became one of the most unstoppable scorers in NBA history.

But Dirk was not considered to be tough enough, mentally and physically, for the 'hardcore' NBA Playoffs. Despite being part of a balanced franchise with numerous supporting players over the past decade, he could never get it done.

(*Sidenote: At various points in the past 11 years, the Mavs have fielded some of the NBA's most deepest squad besides Dirk, including Steve Nash, Michael Finley, Antawn Jamison, Antoine Walker, Nick Van Exel, Josh Howard, leading up to his supporting cast today of Jason Terry, Carol Butler, Shaun Marion, Jason Kidd, and Tyson Chandler)

Dirk though, did earn my respect during this period in one extremely important way: along with Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and Paul Pierce, he was amongst the NBA's only superstars to have spent such a long time with only one team. The 2010-11 season was Dirk's 13th with the Mavs. He was the one true symbol of a young franchise with little notable history before the Nowitzki era. Think of it as what the Cavs would've had, if a certain Decision hadn't been made.

Now let's get to this year: It had been another ho-hum great 50-win season for the Mavs. They had finished with a 57-25 record, their best since 2007. Nowitzki finished the season averaging solid if unspectacular 23 points and 7 rebounds a game. This was his lowest scoring average since 2004, but an ageing Dirk improved his efficiency dramatically, posting up the highest field-goal percentage (0.517) of his career. With the Mavs finishing at 3rd place in the West, all signs pointed towards another probably second-round finish while the Lakers/Heat/Bulls/Spurs/Celtics stood above the rest of the field as the real title challengers.

I had even predicted that, if there was going to be a first-round upset, it was going to be the Blazers over the Mavericks. The Blazers, probably the most dangerous lower-seeded team in the West, seemed to be the perfect team to surprise the playoff-unreliable Mavericks. But it wasn't to be: with the series tied at 2-2 after four games, Nowitzki took control to see that there was going to be no upset this time around and the Mavericks defeated the Blazers in 6 games.

The second round, and once again, I bet against Dirk's squad. This time I had a valid reason though: the Mavericks were facing two-time reigning champs the Lakers, with the Lakers holding on to the home court advantage. But it was the Mavs, not the Lakers, who showed the late game mettle, toughness, and surprising poise in clutch situations. The Mavs won both games in LA, and then won both games back home in an amazing sweep of the reigning champs. Most people may talk about their Finals triumph, but in my eyes, beating the Lakers in four games was their highest moment in the season. Dirk was completely unguardable, and his dominance of Pau Gasol made the latter shrink into a shell and dent his own reputation.

Okay, okay, on to the Conference Finals, and I thought: this has to be it, right? The Mavs aren't for real, are they? I'm gonna go ahead and pick the young and spunky Thunder to defeat them. Wrong again! Dirk Nowitzki had a historic Game 1, scoring 48 points off of just 15 shots, making all 24 of his free throws on the way for a win. Nowitzki averaged 32 ppg over the series, making the Thunder look like the inexperienced young pups that they were. It took just five games, and the Mavs were back as Western Conference champs and back into the Finals. What made the last two series more amazing for the Mavericks was that, at several times, they found themselves in a deep hole, and every time, they used a massive run, usually ignited by Nowitzki to make a comeback and win the game. It was as if the tables had turned with this team, and their rep was changing before our very eyes: long considered to be the overrated ones likely to collapse, they were now becoming the underrated ones likely to achieve the improbable.

Hindsight is an easy thing: looking back now, I realise how amazing Nowitzki and the Mavericks were in the run to the finals, but of course, I saved giving them the credit they deserved until the very end.

The very end to this 'RiDirkulous' summer came in the NBA Finals versus the Miami Heat, a rematch over Dwyane Wade to 2006 that Nowitzki may have personally cherished. But this was a different, much stronger, more LeBron-ed Miami team. And it was also a mentally stronger Mavericks side.

Looking at Nowitzki's individual playoff success again, I realise now that he had been gifted in his team with just the right team-mates to fulfill the exact shortcomings that he was known to suffer from. Can't play post-defense or rebound too well? Bring in Tyson Chandler. Can't play perimeter-defense too well? Bring in Shaun Marion and DeShawn Stevenson. A problem with ball handling and leadership? That's what Jason Kidd is there for. Is his emotional toughness in doubt? No one tougher in the side than Jason Terry. And this group of players surrounding Nowitzki had one other advantage: they all knew their roles and they stuck to it.

In this fashion, Nowitzki became a rare superstar to win a championship without at least one more all star in his side. In recent years, most of the championship winning teams had at least two (going backwards in time): the Lakers twice (Kobe and Pau), Celtics (Garnett, Allen, Pearce), Spurs (Duncan, Ginobili), Heat (Wade, Shaq), and the Spurs (Duncan, Ginobili). In 2004, it was the amazing Detroit Pistons who won the championship with just one current all star player, Ben Wallace.

Despite their depth, the Mavs weren't supposed to be favourites in the Finals either, mainly because they were going against the hyped LeBron-Wade-Bosh trinity. 7 and half quarters into the series, with the Heat leading 1-0 at home and threatening to go 2-0, it seemed that the fairytale for the Mavs was over. But Terry, Nowitzki, and the rest of the squad sparked an incredible Game 2 comeback, capped off by Nowitzki's game-winning lay-up over Bosh, to equal the series and remind everyone that they're still pretty tough. Heat won the third game behind another great Wade performance, but nothing was going to stop Nowitzki and the balanced Mavericks from there onwards. They won the next three to win the series 4-2 and win their first ever NBA title.

Hindsight, I repeat, is an easy thing. All of a sudden, we started looking back at Nowitzki as he really was the next coming of Larry Bird, possessing the most deadly mid-range jump shot in the league and the heart of a true champion. We started looking at the Mavericks as a team that never-says-die. It was incredible to say it, but then again, seeing their history, it wasn't: Dallas Mavericks, NBA Champions. Dirk Nowitzki, Finals MVP.

Despite his below-average regular season, Nowitzki truly elevated his game in the playoffs, averaging 27.7 ppg and 8.1 rpg over the course of the 21 games. He may not have the same pure talent he had back in 2006-07, but in the midst of his run he played the most inspired, efficient, and tough basketball of his career: hitting big shots, grabbing big rebounds, showing up as a true leader, and never backing down to anyone.

It's a pity that most casual fans will look back at the Finals as LeBron's Collapse Part II. True, LeBron James and the Heat fell, but more importantly, Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs rose.

Yes, reputations are a difficult thing to earn, and a difficult thing to change. With one incredible summer, Nowitzki's reputation has definitely changed in my eyes. I look at him now as a winner and a leader that he has been for several years but couldn't prove it. Funny, how a championship changes perspective like that.

What's funnier is that, the man Nowitzki defeated in the Finals, LeBron James, finds himself in the same boat Nowitzki did for all these years. Despite incredible individual and team success, Nowitzki couldn't shake the championship monkey off his back, and when he finally did, the glory was unmatchable. Will LeBron's brilliant-but-maligned career follow the same route?

Dallas Mavericks are the 2011 NBA Champions

I doubted them from the start. This year, they proved me wrong on every step.

On June 12, 2011, The Dallas Mavericks ended a 31-year barren run, after being founded in 1980, to finally lift the NBA Championship, beating the Miami Heat 4-2 in the NBA Finals. Averaging 27 points, 9.4 rebounds, hitting countless clutch shots, and surviving a tough fever-ridden night, Dirk Nowitzki was deservingly won the Finals MVP award. The Mavs lifted the trophy in Miami after winning Game 6 on the road, 105-95.

It seems eons ago now, but when the Playoffs began two months ago, back in mid-April, the Mavericks meant little to me. I had them ranked behind the Lakers, Bulls, Heat, Celtics, and Spurs as my title favourites. To me, they were equal to the Magic, and on certain cocky days, I even pretended that the youthful Thunder could get the better of them.

I had reason for my doubts: Five years ago, the Mavs were near the top of the basketball mountain, leading 2-0 over the same Miami Heat (with many different characters), and planning a victory parade. It all came crashing down, and the Dirk/Mavs choker tag took shape. The next season, Nowitzki won MVP, the Mavericks won a season-best 67 games, but their season came crashing down after an embarrassing 1st round meltdown against the Golden State Warriors. A year ago, now ranked 2nd in the West, facing the 7th place Spurs, the 'choke' happened again. Mavs went out in the first round.

So I thought, why wouldn't history repeat itself, right? Hell, if you look back at my first round predictions now, you'll see that I predicted that the sixth-placed Blazers, the pre-playoff surest bet of the strongest lower seed, would upset the Mavs. Of course, that upset didn't happen, and many others did. Then, I thought that the reigning champs Lakers were going to cruise in the Mavs series, but the exact opposite took place, as the Mavericks swept LA in impressive fashion, 4-0. They were mostly unstoppable against the OKC Thunder in the Conference Finals, reaching the Finals with ease. And even then, I bet against them. I bet that a more defensive minded team - a Bulls side or a Heat side - would defeat the 'softer' Mavs, led by their 'softer' leader Dirk. But Dirk didn't let that happen either. Game after game, the Mavs showed against resilience to bounce back over and over again, and upturned a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 lead.

Through this incredible journey, the Mavs embodied everything that people expected an old-school 'team' to embody. In Jason Kidd, they had the league's elder-statesman, a 38-year-old point guard using his savvy instead of his athleticism to get the better of his opponents. They brought in an amazing addition in Tyson Chandler, who offered the team previously missing confidence and toughness in the post. They lost Caron Butler - who I believed to be their second-best player on paper, early in the season, but his shoes were filled aptly by Shaun Marion, who saved his best performance on both ends of the floor against Miami in the Finals. They boasted of the best support players in the league, getting invaluable contributions from JJ Barea, DeShawn Stevenson, Brendan Haywood, Peja Stojacovic, and even 'The Custodian', aka, Brian Cardinal. Their bench was obviously led by none other than Jason Terry, who stepped up to the plank when required to secure the ring.

And the leader of this crew, the undisputed MVP of this squad, was Dirk Nowitzki. In the list of active NBA players who have spent their entire career with just one team, Nowitzki stands third, only behind Kobe Bryant (15 years) and Tim Duncan (14), after spending 13 years with the Mavericks. He's tied with Paul Pierce (13 years with Celtics), and now, all four of those names have a championship.

Behind Dirk's mental toughness, this team has buried that 'soft/choker' tag in style. They made improbable comebacks, hit big shots, and won by DEFENSE at the end of several close games. They beat everyone who came their way and used every weapon they had. They became deserving champions.

Nowitzki is not only the Finals MVP, but in my book, the Playoffs MVP too. He averaged 28.1 ppg during the playoffs along with 8 rebounds a game. Countless things have already been said about how, Nowitzki, with this win, buries over a decade of mockery and haunting meltdowns. From a skinny, quiet German, with one unmatched skill (a seven-footer with a jump-shot), Nowitzki added more and more every year to his resume. He added leadership, he added toughness, he added rebounding, he added the ability to attack the basket, and more than anything this year, he added resilience, a quality that trickled down to the rest of the team.

This win also ends an arduous road for Jason Kidd, who got bounced around from Dallas to Phoenix to New Jersey and then back to Dallas for his search of the promised land. Before June 12th, he ranked at the top of the list as the player with most playoff games played without a championship (141). Nowitzki was 2nd with 123. You get the sense that this win had a long, long way coming.

And now, what happens to this team next? Well, they only get stronger. They get Caron Butler back. They hope to resign Tyson Chandler. They hope to entice other veteran free agents to jump on the bandwagon for another year.

I used to believe, before the 2011 playoffs, that the Mavs were a perfect roster, with a perfect coach in Rick Carlisle, and a good owner in Mark Cuban, but their only weakness was their mental toughness. This year, they have shattered that notion. This team could easily repeat it next year.

And of course, we can't end the talk of the Finals without a mention to the losing side. The Miami heat were a seven-minute meltdown away from a 2-0 series advantage. Instead, Game 2 changed everything. Miami lost a double-digit lead in the game's last seven minutes, and even though they won Game 3, the belief was in Dallas that they could overcome any adversity. Miami, who looked like the far better team after the first three games, lost their swagger in the last three.

Dwyane Wade, Miami's most valuable player in the Finals, goes back unsuccessful in his attempt to repeat the 2006 Finals domination over the same squad. But that doesn't say that he didn't try - before a leg injury altered his aggressiveness in the last 2 games, Wade was the best player of the series, threatening to carry this squad, almost single-handedly to another title. In the end, Wade was just not good enough. Blame injury, or blame pressure, Wade screwed up too many times in end of game situations, and as he shouldered most of the weight of this team, he is showered in most of the scorn of their defeat.

Of course, he shouldn't have had to do it single-handedly, right? A certain 2-time MVP's meltdown in front of the world's eyes made sure that Wade was mostly all alone. LeBron James, considered by many to be the NBA's most talented basketball player, and considered foolishly to be the next (or better) Michael Jordan in Scottie Pippen's eyes, was anything but great in this series. He was barely 'good'. James continued his awful NBA Finals record, and the world will look back at the last two weeks and wonder what the hell happened!!! James TOTALED 18 points in the six four quarters of the Finals, averaging just 3 points a game in the fourth. He was passive, he was the incredible 'Shrinking Superstar', he was third-best to Chris Bosh in his team. This happened after a near-perfect performance in the Conference Finals over reigning MVP Derrick Rose. This shocked everyone, even ardent LeBron haters. This happened in the Finals, the biggest stage of his career, and playing with the strongest NBA team he's ever played for.

If this is the world's most talented player, then the world has a very wrong notion of what 'talent' is.

Miami will bounce back, of course. They're too 'talented' not too. Just like Nowitzki learnt from years of near-success, LeBron will learn and come back stronger, too. And he has Wade on his side. And he has Bosh, or the trade value of Bosh, on his side. We must not forget that, after all, this team has essentially only been together for less than one year. Champions aren't formed overnight - the Celtics Big Three did it in 2008, and the Heat nearly did it this year, and we should give them credit for getting a winning, defensive team mentality so soon.

But today, they stand second best to the Mavericks, who have finally avenged 2006 and now stand alone as NBA Champions.

I'm not going to ponder any further about what will happen next season, because I don't even know if the next season will happen. The Lockout is a very clear and frightening possibility. I'm too depressed by the potential notion of the 'L-Word' to even think about it - as long as I block the thought from my head and remain ignorant, it's not going to happen. Unless the day it happens, of course.

So if these Finals were the last act of NBA basketball before a longer-than-usual intermission, then they were a fitting exciting finish. Let's celebrate the Mavericks' achievement now - next season is next season.

2011 NBA Finals Prediction: Heat vs Mavs, the Sequel

Before we talk about the present, it's important that we talk about the past.

Five years ago - May/June 2006 - and the last two remaining teams in the NBA were the Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks. The Heat, with their young superstar Dwyane Wade (who was just finishing his third year in the league) and with still not-washed-up Shaquille O'Neal, played some inspired basketball to get to the Finals, but once there, they were against the NBA's deepest and most talented squad in the Mavericks.

It was the first time in the history of either franchise to make the NBA Finals. And it would be a first ring for either of these two teams. Led by Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavericks were odds-on favourites: they had broken a vicious cycle out West - Since the Jazz did it in 1998, no other team except for the Spurs or the Lakers had won the Western Conference - and even before the 2011 Finals were set up, the Mavericks were the only other team in the West since 98 to win the conference.

What happened next? As expected, a deeply talented Mavs squad won the first two games easily, taking a 2-0 lead over the series as it shifted to Miami. Game 3 looked like it was going to be more of the same: but Dwyane Wade went into superhero mode, scoring 42 points to erase a 13-point 4th quarter lead and help Miami secure a win. Credit Gary Payton for hitting the game-winner, and the series changed.

And from then onwards, it was the Wade show - Wade scored 36, 43, and 36 points in the next three games, putting up the most impressive individual performance I have ever seen over an NBA finals series, and helped Miami win in six games, 4-2, clinching their first NBA title. Unfortunately, the story of the series weren't Wade's heroics - it was the many, many, (many, many, many) arguable calls made by the referees that went Miami's and Wade's way.

On the other end - it was a bitter pill to swallow for Nowitzki, who was so close to etching his name into the Finals' greats, but wasn't good enough in clutch situations to match Wade.

History lesson done, perspective acquired; it's now 2011.

2011: And the two best playoffs teams in the NBA find themselves deservingly facing off in the Finals in a repeat of '06. Some of the names are the same, and some are new, adding a lot more complexities to this already exciting match-up. Seeing how both these teams changed the level of their play between the regular season and the playoffs, I'm not even going to bother looking back at their season match-ups. All you need to know is that Miami hold home-court advantage, and Miami haven't lost at home in the playoffs. The Mavs have only lost once.

The Conference Finals were surprisingly one-sided. I was wrong in predicting a Bulls win after Game 1, because Chicago went on to lose the next four, and their biggest problems were exposed - lack of depth beyond Rose, and their youth/inexperience. Meanwhile, Dallas took care of business versus another very young Thunder team, and most impressively, making two massive comebacks to show heart and hunger that they have never shown before.

And I know LeBron had an incredible series, but I have to give the player of the Conference Finals award to Dirk Nowitzki, who was deadly efficient, especially in that first game where he had 48 points of just 15 shots.

Phew... So we're in the Finals now... And here's what these Finals would mean from the point of view of all the crucial parties involved, in last-name alphabetical order:

Chris Bosh: The man who has suffered innumerable jokes (it's not the big three, it's two and a half men) found his aggression when needed and stepped up to help Miami beat Chicago, completely dominating his opposite number, Carlos Boozer. This could really mean redemption for Bosh, and even though he isn't of the Wade-James-Nowitzki class, he's still an all star (with feelings). Bosh will also have the toughest time in this series as he attempts to defend the league's most unstoppable force right now in Dirk Nowitzki.

Rick Carlisle: It's about time that Carlisle, one of the most efficient coaches of the last decade, is finally getting his shot at the big deal. He has had some up and down years as a coach, but has never wavered his discipline - the work he has done with this Mavs squad, especially in the playoffs, is tremendous: both in the tactical viewpoint as well as inspiring them to stay hungry and make the big comebacks.

Mark Cuban: The owner of the Mavs and a billionaire on the side, there was no man more outspoken about Miami's "unjust" 2006 win than Cuban. A great recent article by Yahoo Sports writer Adrian Wojnarowski's talks about how Cuban never gave Miami the respect for winning that title, and criticised them on their rebuilding plan. Well, here we are now - and for his own team's championship, Cuban has to go through his Miami nightmare once more.

LeBron James: Ah.. LeBron James. It's hard to read the word NBA these days without seeing his name nearby. Talent-wise, he deserves to be one of the league's best-known player, but without a championship, talent is nothing but potential wasted. This is James' second trip to the Finals - the first one was a forgettable affair when his over-achieving Cavs got swept by the Spurs in 2007. So what does he do after going nowhere with Cleveland? He makes a Decision and comes to Miami, teaming up with Dwyane Wade to make the most deadly duo since Nagraj and Super Commando Dhruv started to fight crime together.
(FYI: LeBron is Nagraj, Wade is Dhruv).
Anyways - it was a major decision, and it was going to have major repercussions - anything less than a championship was to be an under-achievement for Miami. And as the regular season went, with teething troubles in alpha-dog status, Wade and LeBron suffered those troubles. But the playoffs have been a whole different animal: as the two of them have perfected the art of surviving and thriving together. Meanwhile, LeBron, especially after his performance in the Bulls' series, has been the best player in the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference.
But nothing in the past matters - The Decision was made to win a championship - and so far, the plan seems to be on track for the currently ringless 'King'.

Jason Kidd: Those who know me personally know that I have never been a fan, but even I can't deny what Kidd brings to the table. The last of the remaining 'true' point guards before the era is fully handed over the Rose's, Westbrook's, and Wall's of the world (I know CP3 and Deron Williams will have something to say about that), Kidd's game will never be appreciated by someone who just looks at box scores and recaps. He uses his brain more than his 38-year-old body, and after two unsuccessful runs in the finals nearly a decade ago, this veteran has one final shot. This time, he has a squad better than anything he has ever worked with before. Kidd was brought into Dallas almost three years ago to bring a mature presence to the frequently not-so-responsible Dirk, and he did just that. Will this future hall-of-famer finally get his ring?

Dirk Nowitzki: The nightmares of 2006 must be crashing back in front of Dirk now, and if there's ever been a man on a redemption mission, it's him. Nowitzki has been the best player in this year's playoffs, and is playing at a higher level than I've ever seen him play before. It is fitting then, that, his second chance at the ring once again goes through Miami and through Dwyane Wade. He seems to have left behind the jitters that labelled him a 'soft' player or a 'choker' - but it is this final stand that could make or break his legend, that could decide whether he was one of the greatest or just a damn good player.

Pat Riley: One of the greatest coaches ever, and my personal favourite, and the man who led Miami to that 2006 victory: but this time, Riley is looking for a different kind of win. Now as Heat's team president Riley pulled off a miracle by getting LeBron and Bosh to join the side, and had faith in his young coach Spoelstra to oversee this team make its way to the Finals. Now, he's four wins away from adding to his illustrious trophy collection, and once again, it is the Mavs that stand in his way.

Erik Spoelstra: The man who shouldered all the blame for Heat's early struggles is still here, still standing, and now, in the Finals. The Heat coach always had the support of Riley and always preached defense first. Couple his defensive philosophy and hand him two of the league's best players, and its easy to see why this team is successful - it is just hard to believe that they are successful so soon! While fans were calling for his head early in the season, this post-season performance has turned everything around and made sure that he remains a coaching mainstay for years to come.

Jason Terry: The other star from the 2006 losing Mavs team, Terry has been in the Mavs for a long time, battling alone with Dirk and looking for that championship. It will be a great reward for the fruits of his patience and labour on the bench all these years. Plus, he had a Larry O'Brien trophy tattooed on his arm before the season even began. He better win to justify something like that.

Dwyane Wade: The man who was the undisputed legend five years ago is now being looked at as the third-best player in 2011. Funny how things change - because Wade's game hasn't gotten much worse. His explosive 2006 performance saw him average 33 ppg and 7.8 rpg through the series, and those numbers don't take into account how well he performed in clutch time situations. LeBron came to Miami to play with D-Wade and go to the Finals, and here they are now. Wade had a bad series against the Bulls, but he came up big when most required, scoring 10 points and making massive plays in that incredible 4th quarter rally that saw Miami defeat Chicago in Game 5 to close the series. If there was any time for Dwyane Wade to rediscover himself, it was right before a finals rematch with the Mavericks. And here they are now...

And my Prediction: These two teams are way to close to call, because both have shown grit and heart to win. Mavericks have a deeper squad, but the Heat are more top heavy. In a situation like this, I go to my thumb rule, which is: 'If the difference between 2 teams is too close to call, always go with the better defensive side.'
It's the playoffs, and I'm going to call Defense - which is Miami. Dirk will have a big series, and so will LeBron and Wade, but it will be the Heat's defensive intensity that will end up limiting Nowitzki, and on the other end, their superstars will take care of business, especially during the clutch periods. Plus, having home-court advantage will help Miami, too.

So my Finals Prediction is Miami Heat win 4-2.

And as for Finals MVP? Well it's the question that has been in my mind ever since the season started. Between LeBron and Wade, who will be better when it mattered most? Well, that question could be answered very soon: LeBron has been a better all-round player, but Wade has a reputation of being the best when the chips are down. And in this series, I say that the Mavs will suffer a Dwyane Wade nightmare again. Also, I have a Wade bias. And it's my blog - Dwyane Wade wins Finals MVP

So what are your predictions? Who will be the champion? How many games will they play? Who will be Finals MVP? And who will be the X-Factor?

2011 Conference Finals Predictions

I realise that, unlike my past prediction article, this one has a weird timing around it - after all, the Conference Finals have already technically begun, as the Bulls have destroyed the Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals already. But you have to blame Oprah Winfrey for that one: between the last game of the 2nd round (Thunder vs Grizzlies Game 7) and the first game of the Conference Finals was a gap of only 2 hours.

Anyways, I don't think it needs to be reiterated that these have been some of the most unpredictable playoffs in recent years. The Hawks and the Grizzlies caused the big upsets as they entered the second round, and then the Mavs' demolition of the Lakers left a lot of predictors (including me) shell-shocked. Still, I got three of my four Conference-Finalists (Bulls, Heat, Thunder) right - now let's see where they go from here.

Before we delve into the Conference Finals, let's take a quick recap of the second round. The story of the round was definitely the Mavericks, who rode the hot hand and mental toughness of Dirk Nowitzki to sweep the two-time defending champions. I'll hand my unofficial player of the round award to Dirk - the numbers are great, not amazing, but Dirk's value to his team is unmatched. Gotta give some credit to Zach Randolph, who despite a loss left a large impression on the league, and to his opponent Kevin Durant, who had some big games in the round and stepped up in a crucial Game 7 with 39 and 9 to lead his team to the next round. In the East, Derrick Rose continued to do his thing and LeBron and Wade played at the peak of their powers to eliminate the dangerous Celtics' side.

While the great older powers of Boston, LA and Spurs fell, the youth has emerged in the form of Derrick Rose's Bulls and Durant-Westbrook Thunder. This will be the first NBA Finals in 13 years without either Shaq, Kobe, or Duncan participating. This will be only the second time in the last 13 years that the West won't be won by either the Lakers or the Spurs - the only other time was when the Mavs won it in 2006! The four conference-finalists this year all failed to make it past the first round last season!

So here we are, on the cusp of a new era. When it's all said and then, the championship this year will either be won by a talented player with regular season success but post-season disappointed (LeBron or Dirk) or by a young player taking a leap much quicker than anyone expected (Rose or Durant). Of course, there is also Dwyane Wade, the only remaining all star with a championship ring, who won it in 2006 beating Nowitzki's Mavs.

Eastern Conference Finals: (1) Bulls vs. (2) Heat

Despite all the upsets and surprises, the East Finals find themselves exactly where they should be, in a battle between the first and second best Eastern teams of the regular season. It has been a great season for Chicago, led by MVP Derrick Rose and Coach of the Year Tom Thibodeau. The Bulls had an uncertain start to the playoffs after an underwhelming performance against the Pacers and just-about-average series against Atlanta, but they have seemingly gotten better as the playoffs have progressed. Now, after blowing out Miami in Game 1, Chicago is showing its full potential, as a team where Derrick Rose scores at will and scores the big buckets, Luol Deng plays tough defense and scores important points, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah command the paint, and the support crew make crucial contributions. The Bulls have been the league's best defensive team, and that defense is on fire right now. They have played their best game in Game 1 - now it's Miami's turn to retaliate. They were able to shut down both LeBron and Wade, but you can't keep such incredible talents down forever.

The Heat did get exposed for their lack of depth in Game 1, but no one (including the Bulls) is expecting the other games in this series to end the same way. Chris Bosh regained some confidence after a big game today, but really, this team wins if LeBron and Wade make big contributions, which I think they will. There is too much hunger in Miami to bow down so easily - and someone else from their bench, like Mike Bibby, James Jones, Mike Miller, or Udonis Haslem - will have to step up.

These two teams have so many undercurrent connections between them: during the Free Agent Class of 2010, when Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh were all free agents, Chicago, who had the money, tried to signed each of them at some point or the other and pair them up with Derrick Rose. It never happened, and the three ended up signing together in Miami, and played well enough to finish second in the East. The Bulls, meanwhile, picked up their pieces, brought in Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver, brought in new coach Thibodeau, and saw Rose emerge into an MVP, and in the process, they finished with a better record than Miami! Additionally, Chicago is a homecoming of sorts for Dwyane Wade, who grew up there - this will be an interesting time for him since he has struggled at the United Center in the past.

When it's all said and then, I expect this to be a long, back and forth series, where perspectives will change after every game. In the end, I think the Bulls' depth and home-court advantage will help them make it to the NBA Finals after seven games. Chicago Bulls win 4-3

Western Conference Finals: (3) Mavericks vs. (4) Thunder

First off - my apology to the Mavs and the Mavs fans - I never had faith in this team. Not for their on-paper talent, because they have one of the deepest and most balanced rosters in the NBA. No, my doubts sprung from the Mavericks' shoddy track record. They never seemed to show enough mental strength and whenever a potential upset could happen with this side, a potential upset did happen! Not this year though. This year, I doubted them in the first round, and they beat the Blazers. I doubted them in the second round, and they swept the Lakers. No more doubts! Dallas is legit, physically and mentally now. I expect this team to play in a similar way against Thunder as they did against Lakers, and I expect Nowitzki to continue the hunger for his first ring. Plus Kidd, Terry, Barea, Marion, Chandler, Stevenson, Peja etc will continue making big contributions. The only negative against the Mavs currently is that this team may be slightly rusty after such a long break without games.

The Thunder, on the other hand, have been the model of inconsistency in the second round. The Grizzlies presented them with a mismatch because of their strong interior play, and OKC's troubles with finding their own identity caused this young team to stutter a few extra steps in the second round. Still, on the positive side, Kevin Durant emerged as one of the game's best closers and took the leap after the big Game 7 performance. Russell Westbrook showed the potential of this team if he played like a true point guard, and if all their other pieces play their role - Harden, Ibaka, Collisson, Perkins - this team can play well against the more finesse-minded Mavs.

Still though, the experience of the Mavs, coupled with the fact that OKC might be emotionally drained-out after the seven game series, will give the team from Dallas the advantage. The Mavericks will be better at executing the right plays, and barring a super-human effort from Durant-Westbrook, I say they will win this series in six games. Dallas Mavericks win 4-2.

So those are my predictions - A Bulls-Mavericks final - Tell me what you think will happen in this round?

Sights, Words, & Video from the Warriors' "Bollywood Night"

So as you may know, the Golden State Warriors recently celebrated "Bollywood Night" when they hosted the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night at the Oracle Arena in Oakland. It was a celebration of Indian culture by the people behind the Warriors, which include Indian-born owner of the team, Vivek Ranadivé.

Through the course of the night, fans got to see Bollywood-type dances, taste Indian food, go home with cleverly-punned "got Curry" T-shirt (Stephen Curry, get it?), etc. Click here to go on NBA Videos to watch a nice recap of Bollywood Night, featuring interviews with Stephen Curry and Ranadivé.

Ranadivé in particular makes some very interesting points here. It is great to see an Indian man in-charge of a basketball team in the world's richest league. Inviting the Indian community in Oakland/San Francisco region, as well as Indians back home to be a part of the sport of basketball, Ranadivé says, "I believe that basketball will be the sport of the 21st century. Soccer was the sport of the last generation, basketball will the sport of the next generation. It can be played inside and it can be played outside. It can be played in rich countries and in poor countries. Indians love sport, Indians love to celerbate, and Indians love a good show!"

Ranadivé also announced that the game was broadcast live in India. Yes it was, but unfortunately, all the 'Indian' related programmes, which were held pre-game, during halftime, or post-game, were not, since the broadcasting channel PIX, as I predicted, decided to show its own local advertisements. FAIL.

But hey, I'm glad they pulled if off well over there. And I hope you enjoy the pics (courtesy NBA-India) I've attached from the event to his article. In between all this hoo-haa, there was actually a basketball game played, a very entertaining one at that, too. Golden State led most of the way, even going up 18 over an excellent Mavs side at halftime. But Mavericks were a team too deep, and too experienced. Mavs went on a 15-0 fourth quarter run, and led by Dirk Nowitzki's 34 points and 13 rebounds, they pulled off a 112-106 win.

Don't worry Warrior fans. At least you enjoyed some good kebabs.

Carmelo Anthony, Delusion and Quandary

That Carmelo Anthony is a tough nut to crack, isn't he?

Before I talk about him, here's something else: as fans, we like to have the top NBA players easily splittable into different slots. These are mine:

A. The elite-MVP-caliber-type player: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, and now, Derrick Rose.
B. Amazing players who are a Slot C player away from being in Slot A: Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash.
C. Elite second option/complimentary players: Rajon Rondo, Pau Gasol, Chris Bosh, Russell Westbrook, Amar'e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, LaMarcus Aldridge, Joe Johnson.
D. Experienced team players with limited but effective roles: Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Lamar Odom, Chauncey Billups.
E. Guys that play well in a good system: Al Horford, Josh Smith, Luol Deng, Al Jefferson, Luis Scola, Kevin Martin, David West, Andrew Bogut, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Caron Butler, and Everyone in the 76ers.
F. Talented young scorers/fringe all stars: Monta Ellis, Rudy Gay, Danny Granger
G. Talented youngsters in bad teams still finding their slot: Blake Griffin, John Wall, Kevin Love, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, Brook Lopez

A pretty exhaustive list I know, and I'm sure there will an argument here or there about shifting one or the other into another group. But this list leaves out two very important players. The first is Carmelo Anthony, my muse for this article. The other is Dirk Nowitzki.

I couldn't find a list in the seven above for any of these two guys. They are not young enough to be in Slots F or G. They are too talented to be considered a limited veteran like Garnett, Pierce, or Duncan in Slot D. They are way better than any 'system' player like Josh Smith, David West, or Luis Scola in Slot E.

Which leaves me with the first three slots. Dirk and Melo have both played in great, stacked, and successful teams for most of their careers, and so it is hard to argue that they belong in Slot B. Since both of them have been primary scorers and volume shooters in good teams, there is no way that they can settle for Slot C like Gasol, Bosh, or Joe Johnson. But then are they really good enough to be mentioned in the same breath as LeBron and Kobe in Slot A?

I'm going to leave Dirk alone for now - his place in the history of the NBA's elite will demand a different, exhaustive discussion. Let's get back solely to Melo. Last week, Carmelo Anthony was traded to my favourite team, the New York Knicks. After a decade of futility, losing records, and embarrassment, the Knicks had paired someone I consider a Slot C, complementary player, Amar'e (he can NEVER be the leader in a great team) with someone from Slot D, Billups. Add to this mixture my favourite rookie and glue-guy, Landry Fields.

For a decade, I have suffered, watching a revolving door of underachieving, overpaid, and infuriating players stroll in and out of the Knicks. Here is a short list of some of those who came, who saw, and who lost in New York: Shandon Anderson, Howard Eisley, Stephon Marbury (once my favourite player), Keith Van Horn, Tim Thomas, Jerome James, Michael Sweetney, Jalen Rose, Steve Francis, Penny Hardaway, Renaldo Balkman, Zach Randolph, Larry Hughes, Darko Milicic, and Eddy Curry.

But in Melo, we have someone different. He is a multiple-time All Star, and is one of the league's best scorers. He is in his prime, with a lot of playoff experience, a great late-game mentality, and a lot of more years left to go as an All Star level guy. Carmelo Anthony is gifted enough to be one of the league's best pure scorers ever.

But in the last sentence above, I answer my own conundrum. He is "gifted to be", means, "he can be, but he isn't." And "best pure scorers" begs the question, "Is he anything else?"

Yes, he's a good rebounder, and yes, he is an adequate passer. But unfortunately, there is not much else. Melo has been considered to being a liability on the defensive end, and unlike the elite players, he isn't exactly a leader on the court. Soon after he left Denver, his former coach George Carl echoed the enigma that is Carmelo Anthony: "Melo is the best offensive player I’ve ever coached," said Karl, "But his defensive focus, his demand of himself is what frustrated us more than anything."

And all this is why, despite now having a core of Melo, Amar'e, and Billups, the Knicks are still far from being a contender. This is why many people still believe that the Knicks are still one more important piece, and a few more little pieces, away from being elite. Despite being one of the best players in the league, Carmelo Anthony cannot carry even a good team on his shoulders like LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Dwight, or Rose can. At least not yet.

I hope against everything I've written above that I'm proved wrong. I hope that the unlikely happens, that Mike D'Antoni, the anti-defensive guy, is someone able to make Carmelo Anthony into a defensive guy and a leader. Okay, ignore what I just wrote. That's never going to happen.

At the end of the day, though, it is all about the Knicks. They may not be in the elite league of the Celtics, Heat, Lakers, or Spurs, or in the almost elite league of Bulls, Magic, Mavericks, and Thunder, but they are way, way, waaaay better than anything I've seen in about a dozen years. For a team that has struggled to have a winning season and make the playoffs, the gift of a first round playoff exit and excitement in its fans is improvement enough.

The Knicks have become important again, not only by winning more games, but by becoming an enticing destination for other NBA stars. No one wants to play with Eddy Curry, Keith Van Horn, and Tim Thomas. People want to play with Chauncey Billups, with Amar'e Stoudemire, and most importantly, with Carmelo Anthony.

A year, two, or three years from now: Which slot would you reserve for Carmelo Anthony?

Co-MVPs?

About a month and a half ago, with the much-hyped Miami Heat side struggling to live up to their expectations, I posed a question for the team's top two stars on my NBA-India article: Which one of LeBron and Wade was going to bite the bullet and become the sidekick? After an 8-7 start, I felt Miami needed a clear Jordan and a clear Pippen. Bosh was always going to be the third option - it was really between Batman and Batman to figure out which one of them was going to be Robin.

Oh, how things have changed since! Ever since a November 27th loss to the Mavericks, the Heat have gone on an incredible run, winning 21 of their last 22 games. Their only loss came, again, between this streak to the Mavericks again. Except for that one setback, the Heat have been on fire, not only winning but winning by large, double-digits margins, embarrassing opponents, becoming the greatest road-show in the league, and going as far as cornily naming themselves 'The Heatles'. Their last two wins, on the road to the Bucks and to the Blazers, showed a different side to their toughness, as Heat showed that they can hang tough in close games too, winning both the match-ups in overtime.

So what the hell happened? They say it was a magic post-game talk that took place after that Mavericks loss in November. But on court, there was no change in the roles shared by Wade and LeBron. Aptly nicknamed 'The Super-Twins', both of them continued to play at the highest level, neither budging away from the spotlight and neither hogging it. For the first time, two players with almost identical games, both who are arguably the top two players in the league, began playing equally well at the same time.

Simply said, there was no need for a Robin. Wade and LeBron have done the Batman and Batman act to perfection - both defending hard, both hounding the passing lanes, both creating shots for their teammates, both creating shots for themselves, both attacking the rim, both finding ways to win games for their team.

For the first time, the NBA named co-Eastern Conference Players of the Month from the same team when The Super-Twins led Miami to a 15-1 record in December. During this period, Wade averaged 27.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 4.1 apg, and LeBron averaged 25.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 6.8 apg. Their season averages at this point are ridiculously awesome, especially considering that both these numbers are players in the same squad: LeBron getting 25.3, 7.0, 7.2, Wade getting 25.0, 6.6, 4.2.

The arranged marriage of this awesome-twosome was always going to be scary for the rest of the league, but no one (except perhaps for Jeff Van Gundy) expected them to be this good this soon.

Which brings me to wonder... What are the chances that, for the first time ever, the NBA will hand out a co-MVP award. In the history of the NBA, no players have ever shared the MVP award. The only time any of the awards have been shared has been the Rookie of the Year award, won both by Grant Hill and Jason Kidd in 1995 and Elton Brand and Steve Francis in 2000.

A week ago, LeBron came out and said that sharing the spotlight in Miami will mean that neither him or Wade can win the MVP award this year, but I think that this message will only increase their chances. Other candidates like Amar'e Stoudemire, Derrick Rose, Dirk Nowitzki, and Dwight Howard are having nice seasons, but the only reason any of them have a chance to be MVP this year is because LeBron James decided to take his talents to South Beach.

Realistically, it is quite unlikely that this award is going to be split 50/50 between the two - the MVP award is voted for by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters in US and Canada, each of whom chooses their top five MVP options, and for each position, the player receives a certain amount of points. Given the complication of this process, it is improbable that two players will come out with the same score.

But improbably isn't impossible. And if there was ever going to be a chance for two players, from the same team, to win this award, it is going to be now. I guess there is space in the same Gotham City for two Batmen. We will see the true test of their superhero abilities once the playoffs begin.

The Summer of 2010

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July 1, 2010. 00:01 US Eastern Standard Time. One of the biggest moments in NBA history. While the Mayans civilization, film director Roland Emmerich, and a bunch of other apocalypic nerds would have you believe that 2012 is the end of the world, everyone else (that matters) knows that the end is already here. Or the beginning. Or the most important middle part.

The Summer of 2010. Where Free Agency Happens.

As of the aforementioned hour, some of the biggest names in NBA basketball have become free agents. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, Amar'e Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Dirk Nowitzki, etc, etc, etc. It is the time of the year that more than half the NBA teams have saved money for, raised fans expectations for, based their future on. Franchises like the Cavaliers, Heat, Raptors, Suns, Jazz, Hawks, Mavericks, Knicks, Nets, Bulls, Bucks, Timberwolves, Clippers, and many, many more have been waiting anxiously and excitedly for this moment. Many will lose their best players and be forced to start building up from scratch. Many will add the right pieces around their squad to elevate themselves to the next level. Some will strike gold and win the sweepstakes, bringing drastic changes to their roster for success.

The top free agents in the Summer of 2010, from a list on Yahoo! Sports, are:

1. LeBron James
2. Dwyane Wade
3. Chris Bosh
4. Amar'e Stoudemire
5. Dirk Nowitzki
6. Carlos Boozer
7. Joe Johnson
8. David Lee
9. Rudy Gay
10. Paul Pierce
11. Luis Scola
12. Brendan Haywood
13. John Salmons
14. JJ Redick
15. Ray Allen
16. Shaquille O'Neal
17. Udonis Haslem
18. Brad Miller
19. Tyrus Thomas
20. Zydrunas Ilgauskas
21. Matt Barnes
22. Raymond Felton
23. Nate Robinson
24. Mike Miller
25. Anthony Morrow

These are just the top 25!

For the past few years, and particularly over the last season, the shadow of this summer has been hovering over the entire league. From rumours circulating damn near every day to free agents planning secret summits to teams going to great lengths to clear up roster space, there has been no shortage of speculation about this summer. There has been a no-holds-barred approach to player recruiting as well, a process that has included many, many websites, T-shirts, rallies, and the mayor of New York wrong-numbering a young Indian man. Hell, even the leader of the free world aka US president Barack Obama couldn't keep his mind of the issue, adding his own opinion on free agency. Who cares about some spilled oil when LeBron is unrestricted, right?

Speaking of LeBron, he is by far the most important pawn in the game. Wherever LeBron will go, success will follow, except, ironically, if he stays with the Cavs. When the Celtics surprised and beat the Cavs 4-2 in the second round of the playoffs, LeBron James walked off the court amidst mass speculation about his future. Kevin Garnett, who himself suffered through a major dillema when finally demanding a trade away from a Timberwolves team that he had spent his career with, approached LeBron after the closing Game 6 of the series and reminded him his choice: Loyalty vs. Legacy. Does he stay with his hometown team, the one that helped him become a two-time MVP, the team with whom he can become a true legend, or does he leave for greener pastures for success and cement his legacy? LeBron has been linked with the Cavs, Knicks, Bulls, Nets, Heat, and even the Mavs. Wherever he ends up, other stars are sure to follow, except, perhaps the Cavs, who don't have the market, money, or trade value to get other big players. One decision LeBron, the reigning, two time MVP, could cause a techtonic shift of power for the entire league, somehow similar to the shift of power when Shaquille O'Neal went from the Lakers to the Heat, or when Garnett finally shifted from the T-Wolves to the Celtics.

Then there's Wade, my favourite player, and who is only second to LeBron because of his greater age and his injury prone past. Wade is more likely to stay with the Heat and attract other stars like Amar'e, Boozer, or Bosh towards him. The world, including me, would love to see him and LeBron pair up and make the most threatening tandem in the league since the Shaq and Kobe days.

Others, like Bosh, Stoudemire, Boozer, Johnson, David Lee, Rudy Gay, Ray Allen hold the key to the developments of particularly these two, as great players will obviously be tempted to play alongside other great players. Bosh, in particular, seems to be the most important key of them all, and is sure to contribute his loyalties to one of the other stars.

Dark horse candidates like Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce will also be free agents, but unless there are some drastic developments, these two are not expected to leave their respective teams.

For my team, the Knicks, this is a time of great opportunity. They have enough cap money to sign a few big names, but the question is, will they go there? The Knicks have promoted their big stage, their ties with basketball history, their role in NBA history, their fans, their (few) remaining players, and other factors to try and sell themselves, but good players will only come to a bad team if joined by other good players. Until recently (when I heard that the Knicks offered Joe friggin Johnson a max contract), I have been fairly optimistic of the Knicks' chances of coming out of this summer with a much-improved team. I don't want to repeat the long-endured tortures of a Knick fan, but I would like to say this: Dear haters, don't even THINK of juimping on the Knick bandwagon. I haven't suffered for 11 years as a fan to share the space.

Aaah... I'm officially done with the speculation, the talks, the possibilities, the what-ifs, and the maybes. Its July 1, 2010. It's going to be a crazy summer. Let's buckle up and watch what happens...

Keep updated with the free agent breaking news on Yahoo! Sports NBA Free Agent Tracker.

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